Washington [US], April 8: As Elon Musk's SpaceX closes in on a $75 billion IPO that could rewrite record books, concerns are mounting that others looking to list in 2026 may find it harder to get deals done under the shadow of the space venture's headline-grabbing debut.
US markets, prized for their depth, face a critical test, as more than half a dozen analysts and industry experts told Reuters that the SpaceX deal would likely absorb an outsized share of investor demand, squeezing out other hopefuls.
"History tells us that a mega IPO like SpaceX can suck up the oxygen in the market. We saw that with Facebook in 2012," said Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, a provider of IPO-focused research and ETFs.
"IPOs are a major marketing event, and companies wouldn't want the noise from a SpaceX offering to drown out coverage of their own deals. So, listing activity may die down a bit during the weeks surrounding the SpaceX IPO."
Companies have waited years on the sidelines for favorable IPO conditions after a prolonged dry spell.
A listing like SpaceX, with its celebrity billionaire CEO, hot industry and deep-pocketed backers, could have provided the jolt others need to push ahead.
Instead, its sheer scale threatens to overshadow others, with Wall Street banks and investors pouring a majority of their attention, and money, into the operator of the Starlink constellation of satellites.
Thirty-five IPOs have priced so far this year, according to data from Renaissance Capital, down 37.5% from a year earlier.
That could worsen in the months ahead, clouding hopes of a broader market resurgence in 2026.The IPO market has lined up its biggest pipeline in decades, analysts and bankers said.
But the war in Iran, spiking oil prices, private credit concerns and AI-led disruption to legacy software firms have set a high bar for which deals successfully break through the volatility - and which ones get left behind.
Now, alongside these disruptions, companies eyeing IPOs must also compete for attention in a market dominated by SpaceX headlines.
While bankers will probably advise their biggest clients against competing against SpaceX, smaller listings may benefit, said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at wealth management firm Cerity Partners."Smaller IPO debuts may benefit from a tag-along effect in retail enthusiasm that could mentally lump IPOs together under the assumption that if one does well, others will too," he said.Timing an IPO is often as crucial to a listing's success as the company's fundamentals.
May through June is typically the best window before a summer lull that defers larger offerings to the fall.
While Musk is hoping to take SpaceX public in June, according to bankers, OpenAI and rival Anthropic are reportedly aiming for debuts in the second half of the year.
"The attention that these mega IPOs take from the market could push a broadly open IPO window into 2027," PitchBook analyst Kyle Stanford said in a report.
To be sure, it's uncharted territory - no offering of this size has been attempted before.
Analysts and experts said the absence of any clear precedent or comparable listing leaves investors with little to anchor expectations, making it harder to gauge how the market will respond to SpaceX's IPO."SpaceX is going to be big, no doubt about it," said James Angel, faculty affiliate at Georgetown McDonough's Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy.
"The combination of well-known brands like X and Starlink, along with the magic of AI, the dream of space, and Musk's magic means that the investment bankers will have little trouble generating interest in the stock."
Elon Musk has built a track record of pulling in investor demand across cycles, with his ventures often dominating attention.His empire, dubbed "Muskonomy" by analysts, creates a concentration of capital that few offerings can match.
That concentration of investor interest is not just theoretical, it has played out in past listings.Musk's EV maker Tesla raised $226 million in its 2010 IPO at a market value of about $1.6 billion.
It is now the world's most valuable automaker, worth more than $1.3 trillion.But even that track record and investor appeal may not be enough in today's IPO market, analysts cautioned."We don't believe that SpaceX can escape the realities of the U.S. IPO marketplace, in the sense that it has become a buyer's market," said Josef Schuster, CEO of IPO research firm IPOX.
Source: Qatar Tribune
