Moscow [Russia], November 19: US President Donald Trump is ready to sign legislation imposing sanctions on Russia, as long as he retains the final say on each measure, Reuters reported on November 18, citing a senior White House official.
The bill, pushed by Senator Lindsey Graham and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, is aimed directly at countries that buy Russian oil , especially China and India - the two largest customers, accounting for the majority of Moscow's exports. This move is expected to increase legal risks for importers and push Russian oil prices even lower.
According to Business Insider , citing data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, Moscow's oil and gas revenue in October fell by 27% compared to the same period in 2024. Ms. Bridget Payne, Head of Energy Forecasting at Oxford Economics, commented that insurance, transportation and financial costs all increased due to sanctions risks, turning them into a form of "sanctions insurance premium" that Russia was forced to bear, causing real profits to plummet.
The impact is evident in the market. According to LSEG Workspace Market Data, on November 12, Urals oil unloaded at Novorossiysk port was only $45.35/barrel - the lowest level since March 2023, while Brent oil reached $62.71/barrel at the same time and increased to $64.03 on November 17, showing that the difference or discount continued to widen.
The US Treasury Department confirmed that sanctions targeting two large corporations Rosneft and Lukoil (Russia) are working as expected, limiting Russia's ability to finance its military campaign in Ukraine.
In response, Russia is increasing cooperation with major markets. In Moscow on November 17, Chinese Premier Li Qiang affirmed that Beijing is ready to promote cooperation in energy, agriculture and investment. For his part, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin described Russia-China energy relations as "special and strategic", spanning from oil and gas, coal to nuclear power.
India, despite pressure from Washington, remained the second-largest buyer of Russian crude in October. However, OFAC noted that nearly a dozen major oil customers in India and China temporarily stopped buying Russian oil in December due to sanctions concerns. In addition, Russia has expanded the use of "shadow tankers" - a network of old ships, registered under shell companies, with non-dollar payment systems to avoid the price ceiling of $60/barrel imposed by the G7 from the end of 2023, according to Reuters.
TASS on November 18 quoted Russian Federation Council Vice Chairman Konstantin Kosachev as saying that developing countries currently account for 45% of global oil and gas consumption and will reach 60% by 2035, becoming an important "buffer zone" to help Moscow maintain output. However, he warned that the US's continued tightening of sanctions could lead to an increase in "anti-American" reactions and weaken Washington's position.
While Russia has found a way through China, India and a network of intermediaries, analysts warn that its long-term sustainability will depend on how tightly the US and the West tighten their grip, as well as its ability to withstand rising operating costs.
Source: Thanh Nieu Newspaper
